Monday, 31 August 2015

“Rail network to be further expanded…recent local news (25/8/2015)


Mass Commuting Disruption Caused by MRT Off-Service, are both a "design" and an "outcome".
When news broke that rail network to be further expanded, I am not that excited.

In fact I have reservation that, in the near future this extra rail network may be an added burden to the Transport Ministry or LTA.

It is a bit abnormal to see that since GE2011; The Transport Ministry is seeing baton changing hand that frequently, from Mr. Raymond Lim to Mr. Liu Tuck Yew. What exactly worries me is that, whenever the affected Minister resigns from the Transport Ministry; each time, this Minister left the said Ministry; to a certain extent, I believe, somehow, it is related to MRT earth-shaking breakdown by Singaporean’s yardstick.

To recall, when train breakdown and the un-expected surge in commuters traffic months prior to GE2011; Mr. Raymond Lim, left the Ministry. And just a couple of months before GE2015 (i.e. 7/7/2015 breakdown); Mr. Liu, decided to leave the Ministry too and do not wish to context for the coming GE 2015.

So the follow-up question for after GE2015 will be; by adding more rail networks till 2030s, can the rail operators assure the Transport Ministry that, there will be no similar proportion of train breakdown, like what have had happened on the evening rush hour of 7/7/2015?

In my view, if the Ministry have done all the required processes audit with due diligence, to the current rail network; and if the failure or train breakdown were to happen again within the next 5 years (2015 to 2020);  and whereby its causes are actually related to the natural law of impermanence; and are systemic in nature; then, in my view, this certainly does not warrant the future Transport Minister to resign.

To support my view, I would wish to borrow a know-how from statistic; on the subject of Statistically Process/Quality Control.  

My understanding is that, what the rail network is been subjected to what is known as defective part per million issue (dppm). Assuming the rail network circuitry and processes are already in excellent tip-top conditions; with a process capability of 6-sigma; statistically speaking, there still be 3.4 count of defects or failure that can cause a major train breakdown.

To explain further, our entire rail network is actually fueled to operate by electricity.

The electric current has to be connected in a circuitry manner. However, when there is a small electric disturbance or intermittent in one remote branched-tail end of the circuit; it is capable to affect (in a negative sense of words), the entire electric current supply to operate the trains; leading to the rail network been shut down promptly.

I suspect it is an in-built or been designed electrical system, way back in 1980s.  

Whereby, with just a small electrical fault here or there, the effect is always a mass disruption to the commuters.

With a 3.4 dppm count; by all international quality acceptance standards; this is certainly a negligible defects rate. 

However, the way our current rail network been wired and sewn up; even with just 1 count of electric fault, the rail network will stop operating, and its inconvenience caused is always detrimental to all affected parties.

A lot of caustic remarks will be forthcoming by the public at large; and the Minister or the Transport Ministry and the rail operator will usually suffered the most of this (negative remarks or scolding),  at the other end.

Lastly, the bottom line is whether can the public commuters accept this extremely low defective rate, and be grateful to the Transport Ministry and the rail operators that, for every 1 million trip done; there are 999,997 successful train trips to ferry you from MRT station to your workplace or home; or continue as you wish to increase the caustic intensity of your words to the Ministry and to the rail operator, when there is just 1 train breakdown.


You decide lor.

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